Alone Show Season 5 - Guess who is going to win/tap out order list!

Discussion in 'Media Forum' started by Captain Airyca, Jun 11, 2018.

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Who do you think will WIN Alone Season 5?

  1. Sam

    16.3%
  2. Larry

    30.2%
  3. Nicole

    2.3%
  4. Randy

    4.7%
  5. Carleigh

    9.3%
  6. Dave

    30.2%
  7. Britt

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  8. Brooke

    4.7%
  9. Jesse

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  10. Brad

    2.3%
  1. Captain Airyca

    Captain Airyca Tracker

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    Okay folks! As per @Swampdog 's request I'm starting a thread where we can list out who we think will win season 5 of Alone. I'll post a poll where you can vote who will win, and then post your full lists below!

    Lets keep chat to the main Alone season 5 thread here: https://bushcraftusa.com/forum/threads/alone-season-5-redemption.204351/

    Okay here's who you have to pick from:

    1. Sam Larsen – Season 1 – 55 days
    2. Larry Roberts – Season 2 – 64 days
    3. Nicole Apelian – Season 2 – 57 days
    4. Randy Champagne – Season 2 – 21 days
    5. Carleigh Fairchild – Season 3 – 86 days – medically evacuated
    6. Dave Nessia – Season 3 – 73 days – medically evacuated
    7. Britt Ahart – Season 3 – 35 days
    8. Brooke Whipple – Season 4 – 49 days
    9. Jesse Bosdell – Season 4 – 5 days – brother evacuated
    10. Brad Richardson – Season 4 – 1 day – brother tapped


    Here's my list right now. I usually like to wait until I see everyone's location first, but for funsies I shall post my first list now! I think Brad and Jesse are the "dark horses" of the season since we haven't seen too much of them yet. (so sorry Jesse and Brad I hate to just throw you on the bottom of the list) I'm rooting for everyone, I really think Carleigh is in it to win it and the only reason I'm not listing her is that stupid preview has me doubting... I'm sorry Carleigh! I'm giving Dave the benefit of the doubt that he won't make the same mistake twice. I'd like to see a little more meat on Larry's bones but I know it's hard to pack it on. Sam is also a great contender but again his unique gear selection is making me waver.... GAH it's so hard to guess!!! Like, Brooke is totally rad and could just make a giant cabin castle and still be out there for all I know....
    1. Winner: Dave Nessia
    2. 2nd Place: Larry
    3. Sam
    4. Carleigh
    5. Britt
    6. Nicole
    7. Brooke
    8. Randy
    9. Brad
    10. Jesse
     
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  2. Jameson

    Jameson Scout

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    10. Brad Richardson
    9. Brooke Whipple
    8. Randy Champagne

    7. Nicole Apelian
    6. Britt Ahart
    5. Jesse Bosdell

    4. Sam! Larson
    3. Larry Roberts
    2. Carleigh Fairchild
    1. Dave Nessia

    With 1-4 lasting 60+days, 5-7 lasting 30-60 days, and 8-10 less than 30 days. Hope I am wrong and my fellow Minnesotan Larry wins it all.
     
  3. Mick Badgero

    Mick Badgero Tracker

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    It could be a producer's trick showing Carleigh in so many previews, but odds are that she is the first out because of the fishhook in the hand. Small hooks can be difficult to get out, and that is a good sized hook. You also have to know how to get them out, and she does not appear to know how.

    My best guess right now is that she is the first to go. I don't want to guess on anyone else until after the first show, but even then it will be hard.
     
  4. Zivjeli

    Zivjeli Tracker

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    The producers of Alone have proven to be very good at posting deceptive previews and trailers. I would not get to excited about what they are showing now. The are just trying to drum up some interest in the show.

    That being said, I really liked Carleigh in season 3 and hopes she does well. Unfortunately I do not think her skills in foraging will sustain her in Mongolia. Unless she proves to be a better at hunting/trapping/fishing than I expect, she will likely not win.

    Sam is sort of in the same boat, but he did not bring some of the key food gathering equipment, like fish hooks and lines. He seems to be banking on snares and traps to get him calories and I doubt that is going to work for him.

    I was impressed with Dave's item selections, taking 4 different food obtaining items (bow-arrows, snare wire, fishing stuff and a gill net). Based on that, he edged out Larry as my favorite to win.
     
  5. Winterhorse

    Winterhorse Supporter Supporter Bushcraft Friend

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    Dave or Carleigh.
    They are the ones who actually seem the most at home in the wild.
    That being said, ALL the contestants could do this I believe so my guess is just a guess.
     
  6. Bad Little Falls

    Bad Little Falls Guide

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    I tend to look at snare as a more passive activity, which fits right up Sam's alley. It has merit. I think he will go as far as he did last time, maybe more.
     
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  7. 3Rotts

    3Rotts Supporter Supporter

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    Well I voted for Larry but really I’m not sure. I like Dave a lot but I think he is going to have trouble if his body/mind get hit with a reduction in calorie intake again.
    Brad and Jesse are the two unknowns that we really never saw what they are made of.
    Truthfully I think it is going to come down to who can avoid injury or some other medical knock out and whose resources at their location last the longest.
     
  8. Chris keating

    Chris keating Supporter Supporter

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    I voted carleigh, but dave has a chance as well to come out on top. I think that there are some variables that may come into parlay that can knock outa favorite. Injury, equipment failure (silky blade). And poor location. My 2cp
     
  9. Zaveral

    Zaveral Supporter Supporter Bushcraft Friend

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    I think everyone but the two guys whose brothers left early have proven that they have a good shot at this. I picked Dave because he made it so far and had food when he had to be evacuated. I don't think he will make that mistake again.

    1. Dave
    2. Charleigh
    3. Sam
    4. Larry
    5. Nicole
    6. Britt
    7. Brooke
    8. Jesse
    9. Randy
    10. Brad
     
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  10. rustystove2017

    rustystove2017 Supporter Supporter

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    extra lbs going in equals extra days there imo.
     
  11. dub

    dub Supporter Supporter Bushcraft Friend

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    1. Larry
    2. Dave
    3. Sam
    4. Carleigh
    5. Brooke
    6. Nicole
    7. Britt
    8. Randy
    9. Brad
    10. Jesse
     
  12. OMRebel

    OMRebel He who piddles Supporter Hardwoodsman Bushclass I Bushclass II

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    Everyone's list has the same top four and I would have to agree. Larry has some serious grit, but, then again, Dave and Carleigh were made to leave due to starvation setting in. Those three were tough to watch come out. I think it comes down to location and ability to get food.
     
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  13. Mick Badgero

    Mick Badgero Tracker

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    @OMRebel, so far everyone's top four are the same, but if I had to guess before tonight's show, mine would not be. I had hoped that Carleigh would last, but (based only on the previews) I don't think she will. I also have to root for Brooke, since she is from Michigan :)
     
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  14. OMRebel

    OMRebel He who piddles Supporter Hardwoodsman Bushclass I Bushclass II

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    I saw the clip with her getting the hook in the hand, but hopefully that won't be what does her in, not after going 86 days the first time! I like Brooke, too, kinda hard not to root for her. To be honest, I don't really have a favorite, having watched them all before it's easy to want them all to win.
     
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  15. Mick Badgero

    Mick Badgero Tracker

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    I don't have a favorite yet either. The winner of Season 2, David McIntyre, (Pict here) said that online polls like this only gave him a 5% chance of winning, even though he already knew he had won. The producers intentionally make it hard to guess who won, or some people might stop watching the show to find out.

    They show Dave Nessia in a lot of the previews, and that may not be a good thing for him. In one of them he has his mouth open at the camera. Its an infrared image, so you can't tell if his gums are bleeding (possibly scurvy) or if he is just repeating his brushing his teeth with charcoal routine from Season 3. Another preview showed him having a cabin made from very large logs, but it looked like the roof was just a tarp. If so, it would take tons of wood to keep it warm. And he seems to not have much body fat at the start of the show. Neither does Nichole, who has gotten no votes yet.

    Sad that Jesse doesn't have any votes yet. Even though he has not proven himself on Alone yet, he was a Green Beret. Military survival training has not fared well so far, with all of them getting bored and tapping, except maybe Alan Kay. I don't know if he was military, but he talks and acts like he was.
     
    Last edited: Jun 14, 2018
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  16. LatinForLiar

    LatinForLiar Tinder Gatherer

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    I think Randy is a dark horse. He has the skills (probably the only one to make a friction fire so far), and I think he may have gotten over the mental aspect. In the 'Making the cut' episode he talk about regretting his decision to tap out early last time.
     
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  17. ACinSA

    ACinSA Bring it, don't sing it! Supporter Bushcraft Friend

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    Honestly, I would not discount Brooke or Nicole...those two ladies almost made it look easy. Brooke was not able to get the calories needed so her husband tapped for her. Nicole was thriving and just missed her kids.

    I believe this year, one of the ladies takes the crown!

    Remember, I said it first!

    Aaron
     
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  18. baldeagle25

    baldeagle25 Supporter Supporter

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    I know all of you know these things but I included it to show my reasoning.

    Sam and Jesse could swap places.

    Brook and Randy could swap places.

    Fish hook in Carleigh’s hand is a wild card. I created this list like I had not seen the preview of it. She could tap tonight if it’s bad.

    #10 - Britt He only has 35 days under his belt. His traps failed last time. As an office worker he isn't in the woods as much. He missed his family

    #9 - Nicole Stayed 57 days last time but it was raining fish on her so it was easier than some others had it. Her Kids called her home and will tug on her again.

    #8 - Brad Young. Only had one day before his brother got hurt before he ever reached camp so he has little experience at this.

    #7 - Randy Great skills and attitude but the biggest challenge for him is he needs people and will again.

    #6 - Brooke She thrived before in their cabin but husband was there to split duties. She lost too much weight and will again.

    #5 - Sam Lasted 55 days in a small, terrible shelter in a horrible location but that was his own doing. No fishing tools. 13 day old baby when he left will be tough to miss.

    #4 - Jesse Spent 5 days hiking last time and was almost there when brother got hurt. Ex military. I think he with thrive. Big guy will need food.

    #3 - Larry Lasted 64 days and thrived once he found sunlight. Very emotional but acknowledges they will suffer. Made traps and caught mice but will need more.

    #2 - Carleigh Lasted 86 days before. Pulled from lack of protein. Very tough. Knows plants. Never reached her limit and regretted being pulled. Needs to catch fish.

    #1 - Dave Lasted 73 days before. Did great catching and storing fish. Should have eaten more and got pulled because he didn’t. Learned lesson? Made good shelter.
     
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  19. baldeagle25

    baldeagle25 Supporter Supporter

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    @LatinForLiar - Good point on Randy. I forgot he said that. Regret and not wanting to feel it again is a powerful motivation.
     
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  20. tomme boy

    tomme boy Guide

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    Hooks are really easy to get out with a piece of string. Just yank it backwards. Surprised she did not know that.
     
  21. Riverpirate

    Riverpirate Supporter Supporter

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    She obviously never attended one of my fishing seminars. That was really sad.
     
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  22. Mick Badgero

    Mick Badgero Tracker

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    Sorry for her. Someone had to be first out. Now I need to think about the rest of the season.
     
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  23. Zaveral

    Zaveral Supporter Supporter Bushcraft Friend

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    Sorry to see her go. She was off to a great start!
     
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  24. Swampdog

    Swampdog Supporter Supporter

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    1. Darn fish hook! (just finished watching episode 1)

    2. Larry Roberts

    3. Dave Nessia

    4. Brooke Whipple

    5. Randy Champagne

    6. Sam Larson

    7. Nicole Apelian

    8. Jesse Bosdell

    9. Britt Ahart

    10. Brad Richardson
     
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  25. baldeagle25

    baldeagle25 Supporter Supporter

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    WOW. Bummer.
     
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  26. M.Hatfield

    M.Hatfield Supporter Supporter

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    Pretty much agree with @Winterhorse

    Could we make this thread as spoiler free as possible? For those who record the show and watch later.
     
  27. Captain Airyca

    Captain Airyca Tracker

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    The poll only runs for 7 days after I started the thread so get your votes in ASAP!

    My list is already messed up and I'm so sad :(
     
  28. Winterhorse

    Winterhorse Supporter Supporter Bushcraft Friend

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    Bummmmerrr!
     
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  29. Mick Badgero

    Mick Badgero Tracker

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    OK, here is why I wanted to wait for the first show. In the past, the producers have been predictable. They show four cast members in the first show (after the Making the Cut). Three of them are gone in the first three shows. The fourth was the runner-up in Seasons 2 and 3, and second runner-up in Season 4. So if they stuck to their formula, who is the holdout here? Here are my guesses:

    Larry - winner, winner, chipmunk dinner
    Brooke -
    Nichole -
    Dave -
    Britt -
    Randy -
    Brad -
    Jesse - illness or injury. They've showed him on the ground, apparently in pain, in a couple previews now.
    Sam - missing family already. Tough Nebraska dude, but not tougher than a two week old baby.
    Carleigh - gone day 4
     
    Last edited: Jun 15, 2018
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  30. Jameson

    Jameson Scout

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    This is why I think it makes it more fun to guess before the first episode, or even before the teasers. To each their own.
     
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  31. Mick Badgero

    Mick Badgero Tracker

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    @Jameson , I have been guessing for a long time now, way before the previews. I wasn't even right about who was on the show. Don't make any bets on who I said would win either. It's a horse race.
     
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