Geomagnetic Storm threat?

Discussion in 'Preparedness' started by 1911srule, Aug 27, 2018.

  1. 1911srule

    1911srule Scout

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    I don't know much about this stuff, so please add your knowledge here. I am guessing cell transmissions and satellite will be possibly affected. I always take this stuff with a grain of salt...


    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018...ing-crack-opened-earths-magnetic-field-plasma

    Doesn't sound that serious...

    NOAA:
    .Forecast...
    The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to G1 (Minor) storm
    levels over day one (27 Aug) as CH HSS effects persist. Quiet to
    unsettled levels are likely over days two and three (28-29 Aug) as more
    subtle CH HSS influence is anticipated.
     
    Last edited: Aug 27, 2018
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  2. CSM1970

    CSM1970 Guide

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    We have been having poor cell phone service and delays on our satellite TV for a couple days now. Don’t know about GPS.
     
  3. will62

    will62 Guide

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    It will impact satellite and cell service. As an old Navy HF Comm tech I know it impacts the HF frequencies (2-30Mhz)
     
  4. Ninety0ne

    Ninety0ne Tracker

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    Poleward of 50 degrees latitude isn’t too concerning, might be a small problem on 12-24 otherwise...
     
  5. Walking Crow

    Walking Crow Supporter Supporter

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    I've been checking this site daily for some time and Ben gives a pretty good rundown on what is going on.
    https://www.youtube.com/user/Suspicious0bservers/videos

    The terminology may be a bit foreign at first but his original website https://www.suspicious0bservers.org has several videos that start with the basics of what he is discussing and can bring you up to speed.

    As far as your grain of salt.... there is a very high correlation between the Kp index hitting 7-9 range and computer and satellite outages (think airlines having to shut down) and electrical outages. Since the high Kp ranges do raise some health concerns for those flying at high altitude, I've wondered if, perhaps the computer "glitches" might be just an excuse to ground the planes and reduce the exposure of passengers and crew members. Probably just a coincidence.

    As the earth's magneto sphere continues to weaken, it will take less intense solar flares, coronal mass ejections, coronal hole streams or filament releases to create these intense solar storms. From a preparedness standpoint, these are all good reasons to consider your options for short to long term power and communication interruptions.
     
    Last edited: Oct 15, 2018
  6. 1911srule

    1911srule Scout

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    I figured you HAM operators would know. Something I'd like to learn more about down the road. I grew up playing with shortwave. My Dad had an avionics shop, always had a bench in the house. Sure wish I had the radios he had then. Got two of his Hallicrafters (S-38?)that work well...cool hobby. I always got Heathkits for Christmas...
     
  7. CSM1970

    CSM1970 Guide

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    Weaken? As in Pole Reversal?
     
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  8. Greebe

    Greebe Non ducor, duco. Supporter

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    The average person on planet Earth will never know a difference. The only people who might, and I say might notice, would be people using radio frequencies that 99% of people are not using.

    We have geomagnetic storms regularly, but every time one happens people freak out like it is the first time it has occurred, and that it will wreak havoc on Earth and its inhabitants. Nope never does for the average person. :D:dblthumb:

    My advice is don't worry about all these scare tactics people use to get traffic to their websites. Just live the day and know it will be OK, and if it isn't, well there is nothing you can do anyways. :D;)

    Something to be more concerned about which no one is talking about right now, is how we are entering into a Grand Solar Minimum, which with its reduced sun spots and solar activity, we will see cooler temps and erratic changes in weather. Some will say it is climate change caused by humans, but indeed this change will be caused by nature and our volatile star we call the Sun.

    Last time one occurred was the Maunder Minimum which created arctic weather across many areas of the world that people dubbed the "mini ice age". During some recent Astrophysics classes I took at the university, we learned about this and studied data from NASA to support a 50-70 year grand solar minimum that we are entering. This is not the same as the regular cyclical 11 year solar minimum we see. However, if you look far enough out into history and the grand minimum is cyclical as well. As they say nothing is new under the sun. Humans just have short memories and think things are new since we have such a limited view on how the Earth operates. Our lifetime is but a millisecond in the Earths lifetime.
     
    Last edited: Aug 28, 2018
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  9. Ninety0ne

    Ninety0ne Tracker

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    Well said
     
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  10. dirt7

    dirt7 Supporter Supporter

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    I have my foil helmet ready!
     
  11. Walking Crow

    Walking Crow Supporter Supporter

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    Maybe. There are several things going on now. The earth's magnetic field fluctuates. The current reduction in strength may or may not be associated with a reversal of the magnetic poles. The movement of those magnetic poles toward each other, which has been occurring for several years now is probably a better indicator that a reversal is coming. Pervious reversals were long before our recorded history so all we have to go on is interpretation of geological records and the observance of the sun's reversal with each solar cycle, historically 11 years but lengthening a bit as the sun undergoes its own "quieting". The weakening coupled with the poles moving suggest that a reversal is in progress. I understand some scientists feel that the process could stop and the poles return to their normal "wander" pattern so that a reversal is not inevitable.

    The grand solar minimum that @Greebe mentions above is seemingly unrelated to a potential magnetic pole reversal/magnetosphere weakening. The one thing that the two do have in common however, is that both will allow an increase in the number of cosmic rays that reach the earth's atmosphere and surface. It is believed that this will (and may already be having some effect) increase cloud cover and intensify hail formation among other things. It is also possible that those that enter the earth will have an energizing effect on magma which could result in increased volcanic activity. In both the Maunder Minimum (about 400 years ago) and the lesser Dalton Minimum (about 200 years ago) there was an uptick in volcanic activity both going into and coming out of the minimum period. Anyone see any volcano news increase in the last few years?

    BTW, there is sometimes a misunderstanding about a magnetic pole reversal or as it is sometimes popularized, a "pole flip." The earth is not going to flip over. The magnetic poles of the earth will reverse, just as they do regularly on the sun. Once the geographic location of those poles reestablishes, your compass (probably not in your hand, but possibly in your child's or grandchild's) the arrow will point to somewhere in the southern hemisphere.
     
  12. Luzster

    Luzster Of course your opinion matters, just not to me... Supporter

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    Solar flares also affected our climate way more than fossil fuel emissions as well.
     
  13. Rare Steel

    Rare Steel Tracker Banned

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    Again,Well said.
     
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  14. 1911srule

    1911srule Scout

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    Interesting info here. We got some smart people on this forum. I always try to hang out with smarter people than I, hoping it'll rub off...
     
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  15. jasam

    jasam Scout

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    Agreed and well spoken sir
     
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  16. 1911srule

    1911srule Scout

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  17. GreyOne

    GreyOne Elder Lifetime Supporter

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    The case in point is not a major solar event. However, if you look up the 1859 Carrington event, a major solar coronal mass ejection EMP event could have major implications for our computer dependent civilization.
     
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  18. TAHAWK

    TAHAWK Guide

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    Didn't notice.
     
  19. Scrubs

    Scrubs Tracker

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  20. TAHAWK

    TAHAWK Guide

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    "Date of publication: May 2013"

    'The risk of intense geomagnetic storms is elevated as we approach the peak of the current solar cycle. Solar activity follows an 11-year cycle, with the most intense events occurring near the cycle peak. For the current Cycle 24, the geomagnetic storm risk is projected to peak in early 2015."
     
  21. Walking Crow

    Walking Crow Supporter Supporter

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    The continued existence of Lloyds of London hinges on their ability to accurately assess risk. Yes, this document was published in 2013, no doubt based on data no newer than 2012. "Risk" is not the same thing as certainty. And while the worst case scenario talked about in their assessment did not occur in 2015, the peak of cycle 24, there were several smaller events of the exact type talked about in the article. We did not have high X range flares pointed at the earth, but we did have some with sufficient energy to wreak havoc pointed about 2 months ahead in our orbit.

    If you want a run down on what events occurred that year, you can jump into this video at about 33 minutes


    We are now near the end or low point in sun spot activity for Cycle 24. While sun spots capable of producing flares are still possible, the probability is lower, for now.

    Two things the Lloyds assessment did not seem to cover. One is the grand solar minimum (GSM) that @Greebe mentions above. It is uncertain whether the end of cycle 24 marks the actual entrance to that period or whether there will be a cycle 25 first. Given the progressive decline in intensity of each of the last 4 cycles, it would seem a safe assumption that 25 would be significantly less intense at least in number of sunspots if it develops. That would indicate a corresponding reduction in the likelihood of an intense solar event pointed in our direction. But the GSM will intensify the crop losses we are seeing now around the world. If we reach the tipping point where demand exceeds supply + reserves, conflict and collapse loom large. Can you grow your own food? Can you keep it if you grow it?

    The other thing that Lloyds seems not to have considered, is the reduction in the earth's magnetic field strength, which I mentioned in a previous post. This reduction increases significantly the type of effects Lloyds sees as a major concern, occurring from much less intense solar activity (x rays and gamma rays from flares, coronal mass ejections from flares, filament releases and coronal hole streams).

    It is easy to throw up one's hands with the attitude, that this or that is not likely to happen so why even think about it. That is fine, but recognize that by doing so a choice has been made not to survive the event if it does happen. Since this sub forum is about "Preparedness" it seems fitting to me to consider and examine what it would take to join those who will survive catastrophic events of many types, including intense solar activity, the decreased activity of GSM, and the record levels of cosmic rays, which we are already experiencing at ever increasing levels. Yes, there is a possibility of large numbers of people (and animals and plants) will not survive some of these events when they occur, perhaps is spite of our best preparations. It is not a matter of fearing these things. That is counter productive. It is a matter of assessing the situations (world, national, local and personal) and determining what action options each of us has to deal with as many possible outcomes as we can anticipate. Whether we choose to take those actions will determine to a large degree our possible outcomes.
     
  22. lopie

    lopie Scout

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    for those who are new to this subject, Walking Crow's post is a fantastic summary of a complex topic.

    I'm one of those nutjobs who think we're heading into a mini ice age.
     
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  23. lopie

    lopie Scout

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    again, complex subject, so I just wanted to highlight WC's point...

    a weaker sun means a weaker shield around the earth which means incoming 'stuff' from outer space can have a much greater affect than it would otherwise.
     
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