SELCO: Strategy and Mobility Are More Important Than Storing Lots of Physical Things for the SHTF

Discussion in 'Preparedness' started by Harper, Apr 8, 2019.

  1. Harper

    Harper Supporter Supporter

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    ---

    Here is another article by SELCO.

    Source:
    https://www.theorganicprepper.com/selco-strategy-physical-things/



    SELCO: Strategy and Mobility Are More Important Than Storing Lots of Physical Things for the SHTF

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    April 8, 2019

    by Selco
    Years after my SHTF I am definitely better prepared and organized for anything similar in the future, but just like all things in prepping it is so easy to get again in the same false feeling of being “secure.”

    Once it was, “Oh it can never happen here.” Now it can be, “I am much better prepared now, I am safe.”

    We all sooner or later get ourselves in a situation where when we buy physical things for SHTF, we are actually buying the feeling of safety and peace of mind. I try to avoid that, but of course just like everybody else I often find myself there.

    One of the questions that I get often goes like this: “What would you choose to have now for SHTF after going once through it?” And it is easy to answer it more or less.

    But taking into consideration how most preppers prepare for SHTF I must say that while a lot of things would be easier, the same problems would be there even with having a lot of physical things stored for SHTF.

    Here are some examples.

    Security and resources
    Of course, I could have used more weapon at that time, and more ammo, especially at the beginning of everything when there was complete and absolute chaos everywhere. It was a time when you still do not know exactly who is dangerous and where you can go to be safe.

    In that period of time, it is, as I mentioned before, it is best to stay put, and even better to have some resources and means to defend that resources.

    So yes, I could have used more of both at that time – better resources and better means to defend it.

    But do not mistake that and think with a lot of resouces and means to defend it you have completely solved your problems. Actually, you need to have a philosophy and strategy to be able to have that for a prolonged period of time. Which brings you again to the point where you will have to go out and “interact” with people on one or other way.

    You can not interact (trade, negotiate, barter, fight…) if you do not have strategy and skills for that, a network of trusted people, great knowledge of your sourroundings ( different groups of people, customs, criminal mindset, communication skills, fighting skills…)

    So do not get me wrong here. I would love if I had more physical things at that time, it would helped me a lot. But in the end, it would have turned out similar-interacting with other folks. It would be easier yes and it would take longer, but again it would come again to that interaction.

    And do not think that interaction means sitting in an armchair and shooting at people who are attacking your home. It means a lot more then that.

    Mobility
    No matter how much physical things I would love to have had in that time, or that I wish to have for some future time, here is one other thing that preppers often forget.

    Mobility.

    It is much more important to be mobile than to have a lot of physical things with you in your home.

    Now again, do not take this “mobility” too literally. It does not mean that you only need to have a backpack and weapon and head to the hills or wilderness when the SHTF.

    Actually it means lot more then that.

    When SHTF, there are huge chances that you are gonna be forced to abandon your home, either because you are bugging out or you temporarily have to leave, or whatever. There is no sense of putting “all the money” in your home.

    Develop a strategy where you can be highly mobile, but still have resources, either through survival caches, or a BOL. Have multiple plans where you gonna go in case of some serious event. Have multiple planned ways to there, have a network of people who might help you on the way there (and vice versa).

    In the best case scenario yes, you may stay at your home. But most probably you are not gonna be able to stay there all the time.

    So no matter how much physical things you have – do not count on the belief that it will be possible to keep it with you in your home.

    Be ready to be mobile, not to blindly run away. Have a strategy ready for that.


    (Cont.)
     
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  2. Harper

    Harper Supporter Supporter

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    Recognizing signs of the coming SHTF
    Let’s be honest here. No matter where you live today, you can probably say that things are going to s..t.

    Does that mean that you (or I) will blindly go to survival mode? No, actually. We will try to enjoy our life as much is possible, otherwise what is the point?

    Yeah, there are chances that we gonna recognize the arrival of the SHTF and that we will act accordingly. But chances are bigger that we will be caught in the middle of it by surprise.

    And then?

    The whole point of survival is to act properly in a given situation. You are still gonna be ahead of the of majority of folks around you. So while the majority of people are panicking you will act according to the situation.

    And that is good enough.

    For me, there is not too much sense in living in fear of possible collapse. Enjoy your life while things are more or less okay.

    Conclusion
    As a form of conclusion here, there is the thought that no matter how much physical stuff you have ready for SHTF, it will not save you from all the hard work when it happens.

    It will make things easier for you, and that is great because every help is gonna be appreciated, but you still gonna need to have strategies for interacting with the people around you once when SHTF. In my book, Dark Secrets of Survival, I shared some stories about those interactions. (Available in PDF or paperback.)

    It is much better to develop those strategies before SHTF, while you have time and choices.

    Once the SHTF is happening, the events unfold around you at a different speed. Or we may say “frequency” so it is hard to “tune in” to all that and stay safe.

    Here is only one example – trade. It is such a huge topic on all survival forum everywhere, with people fantasizing about trade when SHTF. But point of it is to be ready for trade before SHTF, and it can be to have strategy about: what is gonna be needed in your region, what is easier to sell (to carry, trade), what kind of groups of people living around you, what they prefer, what kind of organisation will emerge and own black market and what that means for you, where are possible trade places…I wrote more about that here.

    There is a lot that you can think about today, before the SHTF.

    About Selco:
    Selco survived the Balkan war of the 90s in a city under siege, without electricity, running water, or food distribution.

    In his online works, he gives an inside view of the reality of survival under the harshest conditions. He reviews what works and what doesn’t, tells you the hard lessons he learned, and shares how he prepares today.

    He never stopped learning about survival and preparedness since the war. Regardless what happens, chances are you will never experience extreme situations as Selco did. But you have the chance to learn from him and how he faced death for months.

    Real survival is not romantic or idealistic. It is brutal, hard and unfair. Let Selco take you into that world.

    [​IMG]




    About the Author
    Selco
    Selco survived the Balkan war of the 90s in a city under siege, without electricity, running water, or food distribution. In his online works, he gives an inside view of the reality of survival under the harshest conditions. He reviews what works and what doesn’t, tells you the hard lessons he learned, and shares how he prepares today. He never stopped learning about survival and preparedness since the war. Regardless what happens, chances are you will never experience extreme situations as Selco did. But you have the chance to learn from him and how he faced death for months. Read more of Selco's articles here. Buy his PDF books here. Take advantage of a deep and profound insight into his knowledge by signing up for his unrivaled online course. Real survival is not romantic or idealistic. It is brutal, hard and unfair. Let Selco take you into that world.
     
  3. merlinfire

    merlinfire Supporter Supporter

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    I seem to recall some controversy about whether Selco was legit or not, but setting that utterly aside....

    It depends wholly on what scenario of SHTF we're talking about. For that reason you need to layer your plans based on a sliding scale of "what's most likely" and "what is not". Thing is, the easiest things to prepare for are also the things that have the least odds of collapsing society as we know it, for which complex prediction systems have been deployed. The hardest things to prepare for are by definition "blind spots", with open-ended provisioning, that may or may not ever come to pass at all.

    You have to decide what your comfortable risk level is for your life and area. Selco's commentary might be particularly effective if you're in a war torn urban area that might come under siege. That's not on any of my top 20 concerns. I'm not near anything that's liable to go "boom", nor in a hurricane zone, and it would be unlikely i would need to evacuate for any reason, and being in the midwest, if foreign armies are drinking from the Ohio river, that's a SHTF situation I don't think any of you has prepared for!
     
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  4. MAD Punty

    MAD Punty Supporter Supporter

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    Here is my approach (one that is in development).

    Plan A : Bug in = Lots of stuff

    Plan B: Bug out in vehicle, keep stuff ready that you can grab and pack in the vehicle, as much as you can.

    Plan C: Bicycles. I have a bike rack on my vehicle, and my bikes have racks and panniers. By next year, I plan on having a trailer for the bike, too.

    Plan D: Backpack full of stuff.

    A modular system that is flexible...core items go in the pack. Secondary items are packed ready to load in the vehicle. Tertiary items are in the house.

    Core items consist primarily of shelter and clothing, with minimal requirements for other stuff, but nothing disposable. Cloths and portable bidet instead of toilet paper, washable pads for the wife, some fishing tackle, a .22 of some kind for small game and 300 rounds, and some sort of defensive firearm, maybe a pistol..no more than 50-100 rounds. Better to have 100 rounds of .22 than 50 rounds of 9mm or 20 rounds of .223, is my philosophy. I don't plan on gun fights, but I want deterrance just in case. I don't want bullets flying around friends and family, let alone myself.

    I think having one plan is a bad idea....you don't prepare for something, you prepare for anything. That means prepare to be in your home for an extended period, prepare to be mobile if necessary, and whatever your situation, there is no reason to bring a tiny backpack and bug out in your vehicle, if you can pack the vehicle with all your canned food, more clothes, and lots of ammo. Bring all that stuff...and if you have to beat feet at some point...leave it. Your backpack will sustain you. Everything is disposable except life.
     
  5. merlinfire

    merlinfire Supporter Supporter

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    Not being an expert, just a hobbyist like many of you, I think your point of view is the correct one overall.

    There's been a lot of discussion and thought experiments done about long term bush sustainment. The conventional wisdom is, perhaps along with other means, "carry a 22 rifle to harvest small game". A 10-22 (5lbs) plus 300 rounds of 22LR (2.25lbs, roughly) plus say, a spare mag and misc accessories and/or cleaning stuff, let's call it 8lbs even total. Now let's talk calorie-dense foods. 1lb of beef jerky is ~1900 calories. 1lb of peanut butter is 2600 calories. Now, granted you're not going to be eating nothing but peanut butter and jerky, but combined with other, possibly less calorie-dense foods, let's say you can pack an average of 1500 calories per pound in your diet. Thus, 8lbs of calorie-dense but nutritious food would be, potentially, 12000 calories. So the question not becomes, how many squirrels would I need to kill in order to equal the number of calories that my gun "displaces"? Obviously squirrel size differs by region and type, but most people estimate roughly 8oz of meat per squirrel, calories about 250 per squirrel. Using those numbers, it would take about ~50 squirrels, maybe a bit more or less, to justify carrying the 22 rifle, the ammo, and related accoutrements.

    Now that seems like it might be doable with 300 rounds of ammo (6 rounds per squirrel), assuming you're a decent enough shot, and there's plenty of squirrels available to be had. Granted, that is building in the energy and time to hunt, skin/process, and cook all this squirrel. Either way you're talking about just enough calories to rate as "I'm losing weight now" for one week worth of calories. If it takes you a couple weeks to kill this much game, you're starting to get pretty hungry.

    Some thoughts on that. The way this math works, the gun itself is most of the weight, a fixed value, whereas the "consumable capability", the ammo, is a smaller component, at least in 22LR. At the above "6 rounds per squirrel" math, 100 rounds of ammo (0.75lbs) = 16 squirrels (4000cal), significantly higher caloric than the same amount of added weight of "regular food" would be. Assuming of course, there's enough game to be had, and you can hit it!

    The long and short is that at 200-300 rounds, depending on how many shots you will take on average per squirrel (be honest with yourself and assume less than perfect conditions), that's the break even point on gun vs carried food on squirrels, but the math gets more favorable to hunting as you add more 22LR up to the point that you stop seeing game.....and there's no way for me to predict that. Also this is setting aside the possibility of protein poisoning if you're living exclusively on squirrels and rabbits.

    All of this to me really emphasizes the need to prepare caches ahead of time, if you think that the need to bug out on foot is a realistic part of your disaster plan. And how superior bugging in really is, in almost every situation.
     
  6. MAD Punty

    MAD Punty Supporter Supporter

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    Excellent point.

    Speaking for myself only, my .22's that I have "in my system" are a Chiappa Little Badger, a Ruger SR-22 pistol, and an AR-22 pistol with a 9" barrel. (Not all by me...divided amongst my group).

    There is a very good argument to be made for a 10/22, including it doubling as a tactical item, but for me, if I or someone in my group can carry that kind of weight and bulk, I'm taking my .22 pellet gun instead, with about 1200 pellets.
     
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  7. Swineflu

    Swineflu Scout

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    Can you point me to that? Googling variations of "selco" brings up lots of unrelated results.
     
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  8. Watcher of the Woods

    Watcher of the Woods Supporter Supporter Bushclass I

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    I've always thought fast and light was the answer...

    How many "preppers" out there are unfit guys with a heart condition that will keel over the second they have the cut up a downed tree or walk a few miles? It happens around the rural area I grew up every time a big storm would blow through. Good ol' farmer Jim that just sits on his behind all day decides to bust out the chain saw and cut up the tree that fell across his driveway. 20 minutes later his wife Nancy is nagging him to get up while he's having a heart attack... All the time...

    I'm not saying that having some supplies stored is a bad idea, not at all, but being in shape and having skills, I think, is more important.

    Same thing goes for bugout bags. I see some that are 60+ lbs. When is the last time you carried a 60+ pound backpack while walking 15 miles a day and trying to evade possible enemies. Good luck...
     
  9. MAD Punty

    MAD Punty Supporter Supporter

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    Fast and light is never a bad idea, but the vast, vast majority of evacuations and refugees are long, slow walking trains of people, carrying their stuff in wheelbarrows and such.

    My BOL being a 200 mile trek, I am much more concerned with finding a discreet path to get where we are going, than I am in how long it takes to get there.

    My wife doesn't move fast, and I'm not leaving her behind, so I don't concern myself with speed. My kit is designed for a 30 day trek if need be. My primary concern is avoiding desperate or dangerous groups of people. One thing I do know. Predators follow prey. That means I have to avoid the harmless mobs of people in order to avoid the predators. I concern myself with that more than speed.
     
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  10. merlinfire

    merlinfire Supporter Supporter

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    it's been a while, and part of the reason i set it aside is that i don't remember all the details, but i remember some controversy over on survivalistboards some years back.

    health considerations are definitely part of the mental calculus of whether or not to bug in. and people need to be prepared to take their time and not push too hard. if you hit the wall, there may not be medical evac. take it steady and carefully. can't afford to turn ankles. there may be brief periods of high intensity activity when necessary, but if you are having to walk 100 miles (especially if some of it is cross-country) you need to make sure that you can make it.

    as to backpack size i agree but it's a question of what the goal is and your level of physical fitness and to a degree gear quality. i found a 40lb pack uncomfortable with significant elevation hiking but I did not have a top-quality pack, and didn't pack it or adjust it perfectly. with a better quality pack, perfectly packed and adjusted, 50lb might have been no worse. with better physical fitness on my part, 60lb might have been possible.

    but the key factor is to be realistic about where you personally are, test it, and know your limits. SHTF/Bug-out is not the time to be "discovering" your limitations by slamming up against them at full speed
     
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  11. Ephemeral

    Ephemeral Tracker

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    I watched that so called controversy go down on SB, and turned away in disgust. It was the usual hyper critical people making accusations and demanding absurd levels of proof, when the only proof Selco could give was his word.

    On most every survival oriented forum there are one or two, or a small group who have assumed the status of top dog, and they look with suspicion and hostility upon anybody new arriving and getting a lot of attention for whatever reason. Selco got everybody's attention over there with his story, and paid the price almost immediately.

    I tried searching for the relevant posts on SB and came up snake eyes, they may have scrubbed it all.

    About Selco's veracity, honesty, his information in general is accurate, although not unique, the same information can be found from other sources. The only thing unique being Selco, his experiences as he recounts them, and there is only his word that they are fact, not fiction, or some blend. Selco is selling Selco, utilizing available useful information clothed within an interesting story, and as such he and his followers could be seen as a cult of personality. Now this is not necessarily a bad thing, and many others do the same thing in different subject areas, even bushcraft. If one wants to believe, and gather information from that source, Selco, then so what, I don't see the harm, after all I don't see him trying to hurt anybody with inaccurate information, and the things he charges for he gives value for the price.

    So unless somebody knows Selco personally, or can go to his home country and investigate him, then we will never know for sure if he embellishes his accounts, makes them up entirely, or is absolutely completely honest about the whole thing. What real difference does it make, judge his information for accuracy and enjoy the story.

    Just my opinion on this.
     
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  12. Swineflu

    Swineflu Scout

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    Thanks Ephemeral. I'm not passing judgment on this person one way or the other, I know very little about this person. I was wondering if there was a write up on the specifics of his situation vs. some of the other ones people fantasize about. Seems like he was in a city that was surrounded, a group of people under attack. His situation seems like it could be unlike a massive nation wide collapse of the electric grid or similar wider spread situation. In his situation I could see a more "lets band together and fight these guys" kind of attitude where some larger spread disaster where there is no clear enemy physically surrounding and containing you puts you more into an "every man for himself." I don't really plan to go hunting down research on this, was being lazy and seeing if someone smarter than me already put some stuff together.
     
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  13. Ephemeral

    Ephemeral Tracker

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    Swineflu, Harper was posting numerous articles by Selco, and once this question arose, as I thought it might, I decided to give my opinion in the hope that doing so would result in a bit of clarity, and perhaps prevent an argument.

    If I remember correctly, and that is questionable at my age, the people in Selco's situation were not armed anything like a lot of Americans are, so banding together to try to fight some criminal gang could be very dangerous. Without being armed well, the best strategy in my opinion, is to not be noticed, move out of harms way, try to avoid any confrontations. Even being armed well wont help much without training, and banding together with untrained, or minimally trained people one doesn't know well, could result in disaster.

    Every man for himself is the worst nightmare. Man only survived on earth by being part of a group. Nobody will last very long on their own under shtf circumstances, and this is almost a certainty in the long term.

    All the paranoia leading to massive distrust in our society is going to cost a lot of lives when we find ourselves alone, facing people who can find their way clear to work together.
     
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