Why Understanding the Brutal Reality of the SHTF Could Save Your Life (Article)

Discussion in 'Preparedness' started by Harper, Nov 17, 2018.

  1. Harper

    Harper Supporter Supporter

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    ---
    Source: https://www.theorganicprepper.com/brutal-reality-shtf/

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    Why Understanding the Brutal Reality of the SHTF Could Save Your Life

    November 16, 2018

    by Daisy Luther
    There’s something incredibly important for your survival that a lot of folks aren’t doing. I’ve written before about overriding your body’s natural urge to freeze in panic when something terrible happens, but there’s an additional step you must take. You need to know the horrible truth about the SHTF. The ugly, brutal truth.

    Because as much as we stockpile, go to the shooting range and shoot stationary objects, can vegetables from our gardens, and raise chickens in our backyards, it only prepares us partially.

    From my many interviews with guys like Selco and Jose, I know for a fact that an all-out collapse is a dirty, terrifying, and brutal matter of life and death every single day.

    As much as we wish it was, the SHTF is not about you being in a bubble, peacefully working in your vegetable garden while the world goes to hell around you outside the bubble. The darkness can reach you wherever you are.

    Why is it so important to know about the bad stuff?
    Many of us try to insulate ourselves from the dark things going on in the world. I know that I stay away from social media beyond what is required for work because I’m sick of the arguing and the hatred. There are certain articles in the news I hesitate to read because I know they will haunt me. This is human nature – we avoid things that scare us, sicken us, and make us unhappy.

    But there are some exceptions to this rule that you should make.

    It’s incredibly important to know about the horrible things that could occur when the SHTF well before it happens. I asked Selco about this in a conversation we were having about his new book, The Dirty Truth About SHTF Survival. I asked him why people needed to know about the horrors he faced. He replied,

    So you won’t be shocked and so you can shorten adapting period while you are shocked.

    Generally speaking, there are lot of sick and bad and dangerous people. We just do not see them because the layer of civilization and the system covers it. And of course, if I had known, I would prep more but in the way that I would invest more in skills. Much more than in equipment.

    Everything is much more mobile and fluid then people expect, but if you understand this, you will be able to move with it faster and sooner.

    And that makes sense. I write a lot about the importance of adaptation. I constantly remind people that the three steps of survival are to Accept, Plan, and Act. But trust me when I tell you, if something truly horrifying happens right before your eyes, it’s going to be a heck of a lot harder to “accept” that if you never even dreamed that such an awful thing could happen in real life. But if you’ve contemplated it, if you’re aware of the possibility, it will still be horrible but you’ll be able to keep moving. You won’t be frozen in shock.

    (Cont.)
     
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  2. Harper

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    You need to train yourself not to freeze.
    Many people freeze in a disaster situation. It’s human nature, but the ability to break this paralysis is paramount to your survival. You can train yourself not to freeze by exposing yourself to the things you may experience while in a safe environment.

    “Freezing” is called “tonic immobility” in behavioral science and it is a biological impulse. A study exploring the “freeze response” to stressors, describes the reaction:

    Part of Barlow’s (2002) description of an adaptive alarm model suggests that a freeze response may occur in some threatening situations. Specifically, freezing — or tonic immobility — may overwhelm other competing action tendencies. For example, when fleeing or aggressive responses are likely to be ineffective, a freeze response may take place.

    Similar to the flight/fight response, a freeze response is believed to have adaptive value. In the context of predatory attack, some animals will freeze or “play dead.” This response, often referred to as tonic immobility (Gallup, 1977), includes motor and vocal inhibition with an abrupt initiation and cessation… Freezing in the context of an attack seems counterintuitive. However, tonic immobility may be the best option when the animal perceives little immediate chance of escaping or winning a fight (Arduino & Gould, 1984; Korte, Koolhaas, Wingfield, & McEwen, 2005). For example, tonic immobility may be useful when additional attacks are provoked by movement or when immobility may increase the chance of escaping, such as when a predator believes its prey to be dead and releases it.

    Some of our data suggested that reports of freeze were more highly associated with certain cognitive symptoms of anxiety (e.g., confusion, unreality, detached, concentration, inner shakiness). This leads to some very interesting speculation regarding whether freeze responses are also manifested cognitively (i.e., the cognitive system, together with the behavioral system, being shut down). There has been some speculation that a form of cognitive paralysis occurs due to immense cognitive demands that occur in the context of life-threatening situations or stressors (Leach, 2005).

    So, in the context of this particular study, the freeze response could be related to an overload of stimuli because of the demands of creating your plan. By having thought through various situations and getting into the habit of quickly developing plans, you can override your body’s natural desire to “freeze” and you can take definitive, potentially life-saving, action.

    By exposing yourself to the darkness, you don’t inoculate yourself against the horror – that’s impossible to do through simply reading a book. But you do take away a little bit of the shock that can cause you to be paralyzed.

    What made Selco realize that the SHTF was actually there?
    We’ve all read and learned a great deal from Selco and he shares his stories with such calmness that sometimes you don’t fully grasp the horror of what he lived through. I asked him what the event was that opened his eyes to the fact that he was stuck in Hell on Earth, and his answer was chilling.

    When I saw people killing for fun. Killing without reason. Killing with no concerns about punishment or the law. Throwing others from 10 story buildings out of curiosity, to see if they’d live – while taking bets on it. Of course they were sure they were gonna die, but they said” I bet you’ll survive and if you do we’ll let you go.” It was a “joke” to them.

    That’s when he knew that everything had changed and that there were new rules to living. It was simply not the same world he’d woken up it a few days before.

    A while back, I asked Selco to send me a copy of everything he’d ever written so that I could pull together a reality check for the rest of us. Over the years, he’s written nearly a quarter of a million words of memories, articles, and advice. Together, we selected the things that provided a glimpse into the day-to-day events of the SHTF. You can learn more about the result of that here in his new book, The Dark Secrets of SHTF Survival.

    Back on topic.

    Do you have a potential predator living next door?
    Do you know people in real life who you think would turn into predators if they knew that there was no risk of punishment? If they knew that they wouldn’t go to prison because the prisons were gone? If they knew there was no 911 or law enforcement to help their victims?

    I do. I’ve known people in the past that I’m quite certain would be the kind of animals who kill men and cage their women and daughters for their own sick amusement if they thought they could get away with it. I’ve had people write to me about their plans to take other people’s preps or to “take care of someone” who had done them wrong in the past when it all hits the fan.

    They’re out there. They are our neighbors. Our coworkers. The random guy who is in town on business. The person with such strong political beliefs that he sees people who think differently as the enemy.

    They may not even realize that they’re waiting for this chance but when the opportunity presents itself and there’s no real risk to them, you can be sure they’ll jump at it with glee.

    And you want to be ready for them.

    There are different levels for which we prepare.
    Are people going to be running around brutally slaughtering their neighbors the next time we have a snowstorm or a hurricane? Of course not. Because we still have the veneer of civilization – and it isn’t going to shatter over a weather event when help is just a few days away.

    There are many different types of events for which we prepare. We as preppers want to be ready for everything from

    • being stranded in our car due to a winter run-in with a deer
    • to a multi-day power outage at home
    • to a job loss that causes great personal financial distress
    • to a full-on SHTF event in which all hell breaks loose.
    We aren’t like the folks on that show Doomsday Preppers who are presented as only preparing for a giant meteor or a deadly pandemic that will wipe out 98% of the earth’s population. We are the people who want to be ready for everything.

    Up to and including SHTF.

    (Cont.)
     
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  3. Harper

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    Sometimes I think we’re on the brink of darkness.
    We’re at a dark point in American history right now. I’m not saying that we are about to face a civil war like the one that Selco endured. But I’m also not saying that we are free of any risk of such a thing.

    Tensions (as I write frequently) are at a real high right now. Our socio-political scene is a true nightmare studded with extremists who sincerely see the “others” as the enemy. They surround the homes of spokespeople and threaten their families. They rally, united in hatred against one another. They battle it out for and against the admission of immigrants and things are increasingly heated.

    Every time there is a questionable verdict, we’re on the brink.

    Every time there is an appointment to offices in Washington, DC, we’re on the brink.

    Every time there is an election, we’re on the brink.

    Civil debates are a thing of the past. People are enraged when others disagree with them and they react with hatred, not discussion.

    It’s really not a stretch of the imagination to predict that our nation could be headed to a very dark place. And if this is true, you’re going to want – no, you’re going to need – to be prepared for the ugliness and brutality that comes with that.

    Knowing just how bad things can get will prepare you to take the steps that you must to survive. Knowing how twisted and evil that people can be will help you to take the necessary steps to protect your family. Knowing what to expect when you defend yourself with necessary force can help you to carry through if it is something that you must do.

    Check out Selco’s new book for The Dark Truth about SHTF Survival.

    And keep reading, because this is the stuff you need to know if we face a collapse or civil war.



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    About the Author
    Daisy Luther
    Please feel free to share any information from this site in part or in full, leaving all links intact, giving credit to the author and including a link to this website and the following bio. **************************** Daisy Luther is a coffee-swigging, gun-toting blogger who writes about current events, preparedness, frugality, voluntaryism, and the pursuit of liberty on her website, The Organic Prepper. She is widely republished across alternative media and she curates all the most important news links on her aggregate site, PreppersDailyNews.com. Daisy is the best-selling author of 4 books and lives in the mountains of Virginia with her two daughters and an ever-growing menagerie. You can find her on Facebook, Pinterest, and Twitter.
     
  4. K7JLJ

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    At one point between 2010 and now I thought to myself, "maybe you are too invested in defensive means and abilities and should focus more on food, etc."...

    Then it dawned on me what the 99% around me are going to be focused on because they did not prepare to be self-reliant... Taking stuff from those who did. Character is not normally worn on the sleeve, it must be observed over time. Act accordingly.
     
  5. Ron

    Ron Guide

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    Sun-Tzu; know your enemy and know yourself self and you will be victorious. Know yourself but not your enemy and for every victory you will suffer a defeat. Know neither yourself nor your enemy and you will face defeat in every single battle.

    The western world as we know it in the eve of all out civil war. All these fundamentally irreconcilable ethnic and religious groups (and I am counting politics as a religion too) forced living together, tensions rising, crime rampant, a failing (or deliberately absent) governmental monopoly on force and a hopelessly dependent and addicted population. All we need is an economic meltdown and the very fabric of society evaporates.
    I know I have to make at least 1 preemptive strike in my immediate vicinity in that case. We have no social network worth mentioning. We are the foreigners. We do the foodgrowingthing and he hates our guts, just because of these last 2 things. Plus he has a meanstreak and guns.... which we do not.
     
  6. K7JLJ

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    Preemptive strikes would be going against YHVHs word so I could not do that, but I'm commanded to protect my family and those under my house.

    The property line is the trigger, cross at your own peril if you intend them harm.

    In other words... "Get off my lawn"!!!
     
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  7. Ron

    Ron Guide

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    In my case that would mean knife vs. rifle in open terrain.
    With preemptive I mean that if he indeed would be showing violent or threatening tendencies when things go wrong, I would have to take the fight to him.
    And with YHVH I assume you mean a divine being, globally worshipped? His word or not, but I am not willing to meet him without putting up a fight.
     
  8. K7JLJ

    K7JLJ Tracker

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    Yes, the God of Abraham, Isaac & Jacob.
     
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  9. K7JLJ

    K7JLJ Tracker

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    @Keithturkjr
    Did you cut and past that? Cause I could barely follow it it even after reading 3 times.
    Perhaps starting a new thread on what the point is that's you are trying to make?
     
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  10. DKR

    DKR Scout

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    Perhaps looking at the results of the last batch of many fires in Cali would be far more instructive - and a bit less prepper
    porn-ish..

    You know - real world stuff. Like the people living in the Walmart parking lot at Chino CA.

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    real-world "Apocalypse"

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    fire evacuees living at a Walmart parking lot - please note the plies of food, clothing, sleeping bags - NOT taken by packs of gun-toting raiders - just dropped off by folks that could and wanted to help.

    [​IMG]

    I write so-called Disaster Fiction, real EOTW stuff. It mostly focuses on how people help people - real world stuff in a fictional setting.

     
    Last edited: Nov 19, 2018
  11. K7JLJ

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    I think some might be confusing localized disasters with what the Author is talking about.
    It's bound to happen when using a vague label such as SHTF.

    Even at the level of the Paradise emergency, we see the behavior the author is talking about in the Katrina Super Dome.

    Anyone that doesn't think men are inherently evil, needs to do a few midnight ride alongs with the local Police. Go take that report at the hospital of an infant penetrated by a known pedophile while it's drug addict of a grandmother left the child alone with the monster. Don't tell me man in inherently good!
     
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  12. DKR

    DKR Scout

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    The fires in Cali have displaced 300K people - in one small area of one state.

    Katrina displaced over 600K across multiple States. FWIW, the population of California is greater than the whole of Canada.

    Have they arrested looters? Yup. Have bad things happened? Yup. Has there been wholesale looting by gangs of armed raiders?
    Not so much - notwithstanding the massive and ongoing problems already present with the Gangs across the State. I'm no Polyanna - but then, real life is not The Road. We see what we see based on our life experience. YMMV.
     
  13. K7JLJ

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    Looks like we agree on something. Good Luck to you!
     
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  14. Ron

    Ron Guide

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    And that is what I witnessed here during the forestfire trouble in '14 and this year; hordes of regular people standing up, volunteering and helping total strangers, where government failed miserably in both cases.

    As a former policeofficer I tell you you are deadwrong. You cherrypick bad examples and make them stand for each and everyone.
    By far the vast majority are decent folks and will band together. Of course there are always the bad apples and yes these apples might infect others as well. I agree that current society appears to have a special soft spot for these caracters, highlighting their conducts. I have no idea how things are in the US of A, but in Europe crime, whislt present, was nowhere near as rampant as what you people appear to experience. But we are catching up, especially since '15.....
     
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  15. CaliforniaCanuck

    CaliforniaCanuck Guide

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    The older I get the more turned off I get by these types of topics.

    After a few sentences I realized it's purpose is just to write something. After that it's not worth reading.

    To the OP, why post the entire article here? Was it not enough to just post the link? Makes me wonder what the motive is?
     
  16. Black5

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    Scary sells. Mayhem equals money.

    I am an admitted prepper. I joined here initially to learn more survival skills. I do believe a government/economic collapse is probable at some point.

    However...the majority of real prepping is to be ready for events like California, or tornadoes, hurricanes, etc. I believe there are bad people who will take advantage of the situation. I believe there are good people who see the world through rose rose colored glasses or ignorance who will suffer for their lack of caution. And there are preppers ready to help others as well as feudalistic fantasizers hoping for a meltdown so they can shoot their neighbor.

    Looking back at the great depression, it could happen again. And it might be a unifying event for our country. I believe we will see the good and bad, and I believe the good will prevail.
     
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  17. Keithturkjr

    Keithturkjr Scout

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    No, I didn't copy and paste. I wrote it.
    I stated my opinion as it relates to the subject posted.
    I admit that I offered a complex opinion to the original post. The original post was complex and I wanted to be accurate with my statement.

    It is also very religious. The original post is talking about some very serious stuff. When we're talking about tents and marshmallows I can have soft opinions, but matters are that serious, my belief system will jump out and say HELLO.

    I'm not sure that starting a separate thread is the direction forum admins and viewers wants things to go. Religion is very personal. There are a lot of similar but different belief systems out there. Original basis of the forums is bush craft, its a different subject,..its not contradictory, but it is different.


    If you want to talk about God, you can PM me. If A lot of people really want talk about it we might get a group forum.
     
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  18. Harper

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    Then feel free to avoid reading these types of posts in the future. I should point out that others here find them useful.

    No, it was not enough to just post the link. I used to post a short excerpt from the piece and then the link. But I was specifically instructed by @Jason to include the full article in accordance with BCUSA rules. Feel free to take the issue up with him if you find it so objectionable.

    I don't care for your implication--but I'm not going to lose sleep over it. The answer is simple: for informational purposes. SELCO lived through a SHTF scenario and his observations are instructional. I have no fiduciary interests if that is what you are suggesting.

    Have a good evening.
     
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  19. Jason

    Jason Founder Staff Member Administrator Vendor

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    Relevant portion of forum rule #2:

    "...You may not link to blogs or other websites without providing content in this forum. It is permissible to link to a blog if you also repost all of the content here as well otherwise the post will be deleted..."

    Basically it says that this forum will not be used as a platform to redirect to other sites. I have no opinion on the article but he is following the rules with how it was posted.
     
  20. K7JLJ

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    Spot on... the Great Depression was a unifying event, but do you think our moral code is better or worse as a nation today compared to then?
    Do we as a nation unify or divide currently?
     
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  21. K7JLJ

    K7JLJ Tracker

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    Thanks @Keithturkjr for the reply.

    I was not trying to disparage what you said, I just didn't/don't comprehend your point through it so I thought I would ask for clarification, but to be honest I'm not curious enough to have a PM conversation about what you believe.

    Nothing personal, I'm sure few care about my belief system also and it's hard enough trying to divide the Word correctly with someone in person let alone this format. My experience is that it never works on this type of format and I don't care to try.

    I do mean that respectfully.
     
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  22. Guttersnipe

    Guttersnipe Supporter Supporter

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    I found the article thought provoking and informative.
    Thank you to @Harper for posting.
    I'll be following this thread as the subject is interesting to me especially after living in many different places and climates over the last few years.
    I, personally have learned much about being "prepared" based on my AO, and that can change drastically from place to place.
    Always curious as to others methods, game plans, thoughts, etc. on the subject.
     
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  23. PERRO

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    After reading several accounts on the " CA Fires " ..I'm a bit bewildfered :11:

    Why some folks are considering / planning on " Re-Building " in the same place ... I wonder " IF ", they will be able to get the Property Insured ???

    And Now.. they have to worry over " FLOODING / MUD SLIDES / DEBRIS FLOWS " ( For the next several years ??? ) with Rain forecasted for next week.. :11:

    It will take '10 to 20 years' before Santa Monica Mountains look like they did before Woolsey fire

    By LOUIS SAHAGUN
    NOV 18, 2018 | 4:00 AM
    http://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-mountain-lion-wildfires-20181118-story.html


    Previous Posted info:

    Trump and Brown stir up rhetoric on wildfires but overlook pressing problems
    By BETTINA BOXALL
    NOV 14, 2018 | 4:00 AM

    President Trump took to Twitter to blame bad forest management. Gov. Jerry Brown pointed to climate change.

    Their arguments about the cause of disastrous wildfires roaring across the state have turned a California catastrophe into the latest political cudgel in the ongoing slugfest between Washington and Sacramento.

    Both leaders are in a sense promoting their political agendas. In Trump’s case, that is an attack on environmental regulations. In Brown’s, it is a call to arms to slow global warming.

    But as is often the case with political rhetoric, reality is far more complicated.

    The Trump-Brown exchange ignores what many experts consider core reasons for fire’s escalating toll: Humans keep sparking them, and Californians keep building in high-fire zones prone to the fierce winds that inevitably drive the state’s most calamitous blazes............"

    http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/...mp-brown-20181114-story.html#nws=mcnewsletter

    P.S.: Lots of recent debates over " New Building(s) Construction Projects " over Earthquakes Fault Lines..:56:

    Fault Activity Map of California (2010)
    http://maps.conservation.ca.gov/cgs/fam/

    https://bushcraftusa.com/forum/thre...well-in-california.236038/page-2#post-4099030
     
    Last edited: Nov 19, 2018
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  24. Black5

    Black5 Supporter Supporter

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    We are currently divided. Look at some of the recent threads. We have some members here now being very disparaging and inflammatory. We have no common goal as a nation.

    I believe the morals of our country are currently declining more rapidly than I care to imagine. Hence, another reason in my prepping I factor in the bad element. I am a distrustful person. I usually hope to be proven wrong.
    A man said, "You cannot believe in the light without believing in the dark."
    But to be aware of the dark does not require submission to the dark.
    Fear of the dark may move more toward the light.
     
  25. PERRO

    PERRO Supporter Supporter

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    The Big One could leave 250,000-400,000 quake refugees in California. Where will they go?
    By RONG-GONG LIN II and SARAH PARVINI
    JUN 03, 2018 | 6:00 AM

    When a catastrophic earthquake hits California, buildings will topple and potentially hundreds could be killed.

    But what gets less attention is the wrenching aftermath of such a huge temblor, which could leave whole neighborhoods torched by fires uninhabitable and hundreds of thousands of people without a home. Officials are grappling with where all these quake refugees would go.

    In the San Francisco Bay Area, more than 400,000 could be displaced in a magnitude 7 earthquake on the Hayward fault, which directly runs underneath cities like Berkeley, Oakland, Hayward and Fremont, said Ken Hudnut, the U.S. Geological Survey’s science advisor for risk reduction. And it’s possible that more than 250,000 people in Southern California could be forced out of their homes after a major earthquake on the San Andreas fault, Hudnut said.

    Not everyone will need to stay in public shelters — many will stay with relatives, friends and hotels. Still, more than 175,000 people may have no other choice than stay at a public shelter in Southern California, which could be could be challenged with acute shortages of food, water and medicine, according to ShakeOut, a USGS report simulating a major Southern California earthquake.

    And in the Bay Area, so many buildings built under minimal codes could be so damaged many may be forced to move away “for at least several months, and possibly permanently” due to the region’s housing shortage, according to a separate USGS report on a hypothetical Northern California earthquake, called HayWired.

    “So many people will be displaced they won’t be able to stay within the metro area,” Keith Porter, a University of Colorado Boulder professor and chief engineer of the USGS earthquake reports, said of a major Bay Area earthquake. “So they’ll move away, just like they moved away from New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina.”

    Arizona recently took a major step in dealing with this question. Officials in May launched a full-scale exercise that simulated a mass exodus of 400,000 evacuees from Southern California. The drill gave emergency workers a chance to consider how they would respond to the many elements of the disaster: providing food and shelter, helping unaccompanied minors, assisting in family reunification, and dealing with the transportation and resource hurdles.

    The exercise was aimed at beginning to think about how to deal with such a refugee crisis, though experts in California said it’s unlikely that many people would end up in Arizona. It may actually be quite difficult to leave California after an earthquake moves one side of the San Andreas past the other by as much as 30 feet — severing routes to Phoenix on Interstate 10 in the Coachella Valley and Las Vegas on Interstate 15 at the Cajon Pass.

    Also complicating problems would be a widespread lack of power, thwarting the ability of motorists to refuel. “If you choose to go, it’s going to be difficult to do so. It’s a pretty hot desert between you and Phoenix,” seismologist Lucy Jones said.

    In the hypothetical magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas fault, many people living in eastern L.A. County, Riverside, San Bernardino and the desert cities of the Coachella Valley will likely leave for less affected areas.

    But even within Southern California, it’ll be hard to move around. Streets will be clogged with debris; traffic lights won’t work; bridges will be damaged, the USGS says.

    Experts said it probably won’t be necessary for quake refugees to go all the way to Arizona or Nevada. Even if a magnitude 7.8 earthquake hits the southern San Andreas, areas farther away from the fault will still be habitable, such as Orange, Ventura and San Diego counties, Jones said.

    “There’s going to be a lot of Southern California that’s not going to be devastated,” Jones said.

    Which areas are most affected depends on which fault ruptures. A magnitude 7.5 earthquake on the Puente Hills thrust fault directly underneath downtown Los Angeles would be catastrophic there, but would leave Riverside in comparatively better shape.

    Experts say it would be much better to shelter in place at home. Owners can take steps to do so by retrofitting older houses or apartments now at risk for sliding off its foundation or collapsing in an earthquake. Residents can prepare by storing water, food, medicine and other supplies to sustain themselves for, ideally, two weeks, or at least a minimum of 72 hours. A gallon of water per day per person is recommended.

    Unfortunately, most Californians don’t bother to be prepared, and a failure to stock up on something as basic as drinking water could lead residents to leave even if their home is structurally sound.

    “It’s clear the public doesn’t think about these things,” Hudnut said. “I’d rather be one of those people who doesn’t have to go and has more water stored.”

    But a big wild card that would push someone to flee are fires following an earthquake, with shattered pipes expected to hamper firefighting.

    Most hydrants in the East Bay will be dry in a magnitude 7 earthquake on the Hayward fault, according to an estimate by Charles Scawthorn, a risk consultant to the USGS, helping to allow fires to burn a building floor area equal to 52,000 single-family homes; in Southern California, it’s possible the equivalent of 133,000 single-family homes will be charred.

    In three great urban earthquakes in modern history — Lisbon in 1755, San Francisco in 1906 and Tokyo in 1923 — it was the fires following the earthquake that was particularly devastating.

    “The fires were overwhelming,” said Jones, author of “The Big Ones: How Natural Disasters Have Shaped Us and What We Can Do About Them.” “If the fire storms are getting going, and we’re going into Santa Ana conditions, and they haven’t been able to control the fires,” it’s possible that people may seek to flee to other states, Jones said.

    But states like Arizona could have other problems than just dealing with evacuees. Those states could suffer fuel shortages from the severing of pipelines in California where they cross the San Andreas fault, Jones said.

    While California may have to deal with a short-term shelter crisis, a longer-term concern is whether so many people move away permanently that communities wither, jobs are lost and businesses shutter, Jones said.

    The only years that L.A. has ever lost population were the two years following the 1971 Sylmar and 1994 Northridge earthquakes, Jones said.

    The 3½-day-simulation near Phoenix — planned over the course of a year, involving 75 agencies and more than 1,000 people — first focused on Arizona counties closest to California’s border.

    “They will be the first to experience fuel or food shortages, cellphones getting overloaded and a medical surge,” said Judy Kioski, spokeswoman for the Arizona Department of Emergency and Military Affairs. “We’re worried about where are people going to shelter, how do we feed them, and family reunification.”

    The exercise included mass of tents on a field near Phoenix simulating a shelter; some acted as evacuees, others practiced how to render aid.

    Some lessons have been already learned. “One of the things we identified was turning rest areas into locations where we could have additional information, and providing hard copies of information if cellphones go out,” Kioski said.

    Previous drills have taken place in Utah, where the Wasatch fault zone threatens the Salt Lake City area with earthquakes as large as magnitude 7.5, and Missouri, where the New Madrid Seismic Zone generated several earthquakes between magnitudes 7 and 8 in the winter of 1811-12.

    In California, officials have undergone their own emergency simulations and drills. Recently, a simulation was held envisioning a big tsunami wiping out roads in Humboldt and Del Norte counties, and officials flew C-130 aircraft and helicopters in an exercise to test how supplies could be flown in and which airports could be accessible, said Kelly Huston, a deputy director for the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services.

    In September, the Bay Area will undergo its annual Urban Shield training that tests the region’s response capabilities in a disaster; this year, the exercise will focus on mass care and sheltering.

    Elements of emergency plans have already been put in force. When more than 100,000 people were ordered evacuated downstream of Oroville Dam last year amid fears an emergency spillway could collapse, officials moved to open up mass evacuation centers, including one in Sacramento.

    But one lesson that has been learned is that most people aren’t inclined to flee long distances, as was the case in the Wine Country wildfires last year.

    “We found most people want to stay near to or close to their homes,” Huston said, even if it meant pitching a tent in front a damaged property. That means a key priority may be, for instance, “to provide food and assistance to neighborhood by neighborhood.”

    10:30 a.m., June 4: More information was added about the source of information to estimates published in a USGS report related to fires following earthquakes in the Bay Area and Southern California.

    This article was originally published at 6 a.m. on June 3.

    http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-california-earthquake-refugee-arizona-20180603-story.html
     
    Last edited: Nov 19, 2018
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  26. lopie

    lopie Scout

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    good article.

    desperate people take desperate actions... this is true even of friends you know. If you have a limited supply or ability, you can feed only so many friends. You have to draw the line somewhere an those people left out, eventho once friends, will turn on you, probably violently.
     
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  27. Black5

    Black5 Supporter Supporter

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    This is why we need to be aware that good people may do bad things out of desperation, when desperation may have been avoidable.

    I don't prep out of fear, I prep to minimize fear.
     
  28. lopie

    lopie Scout

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    This. I'm not convinced teotwawki will happen, but i have way more than two weeks of food. It helps me sleep at night. Granted, I do think a blizzard that dumps several feet of snow and knocks out power for two weeks is very possible, so I prep for that primarily.

    agreed. So frustrating that friends and family ignore us. My family is close to another family of four who make combined $200,000 per year. Way more than we make. But I put our pennies towards preps. They know this, they "know" they should prep, but they're still coming to my house in an emergency.
     
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  29. Black5

    Black5 Supporter Supporter

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    That is frustrating, isn't it? They know they should be trying to take care of themselves in case of an emergency, yet their plan is to have someone else do it.

    Ants and grasshoppers, my friend, ants and grasshoppers.
     
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  30. Uncle Duke 520

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    Whoa! Hold on there, amigo! Don't send those L.A people to Arizona. They will perish in the heat. Las Vegas might be a better place to go...
     
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  31. Keithturkjr

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    So, I really havent paid much attention to the news lately because its devolved into a soap opera,.... I don't have time for soap operas.

    What is the federal government doing?
    300,000 is pretty massive number of displaced people. Hurricane Micheal just hit and the fed has helped a little with that.

    Federal help is usually not the star of the show. The fed usually takes a top-down approach with the red cross and insurance companies doing the bulk of the work, but they do show up to make sure things happen.
    Something people often can't see the federal government doing is funding/supplying logistically supporting independent agencies that respond to disasters.

    We know we're not going to like what Trump and Brown and the media are saying, but maybe we'll like what they are doing.
     
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  32. lopie

    lopie Scout

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    yes, frustrating, thanks.

    i guess the most annoying part is... that I have to help them instead of another family. I feel like I have enough resources to help, say, 25 people during a very short-term (one week?) emergency... storing enough water is a challenge. I can help two families for a month or two. So, the fact that my friends make plenty of money, but don't prep, means someone else gets screwed.

    If 1/3 of the people prepped and planned on helping two other people, then there would be no crisis.

    I need to find a way to tell my friends to help out.
     
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  33. DKR

    DKR Scout

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    Arizona prepares for statewide drill to practice how it would respond to a migration of 400,000 people in case of a catastrophic California earthquake
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...g-statewide-drill-case-post-quake-exodus.html

    I lived in Las Vegas for many years while active duty. We fled in 1991 - never to return.

    while there - I had a plan for the wife to hit the gas stations and fill all empty gas jugs, then hit the UHaul to rent a small truck in the event the 'big one' hit Califlower. The reason was simple - population displacement. We were living in base housing & I knew I could count on some new 'roomies' courtesy of my Uncle Sugar. Out goal was to door load and be gone in 4 hours or less.

    Rather than subject my family to the disruption, we would 'flee' to parts of Ut to live with family. I would return on a Motorcycle, as fuel would be an issue almost immediately - all motor fuel for NV and Az come in via pipeline from Cali. This would also remove my family from the pool of folks needing food, water, etc.


    My wife was, at first, resistant to the plan owing to the disruption to the family, schools, etc.
    Then - there was a relatively minor earthquake in LA.

    "About" 100 showed up in Las Vegas 4 hours later - many still in their jammies, freaked out over the quake.

    Oddly, they wee also surprised when they didn't (instantly) get free hotel rooms, food, etc because they had no cloths, money and so on.

    In the end, Clark Co paid for them to leave - via gas cards and some cash - just to get rid of them.

    I told my wife - "Multiply that by 100,000 or more" She started to sort out what was needed to rent a moving van...this is carry our preps/food/etc so as not to arrive empty handed at our destination....


    As an aside, Norovirus is sweeping thru the FEMA camps in CA right now. If that wasn't enought trouble -. Don't forget there is a massive and growing crowd in TJ wanting in -- this will further drain the resources that CA might muster to help fire victims....

    The new CA Gov has a real mess on his hands. one that seems to grow worse each day - I wish him good luck with this.... It is going to get a lot worse before it gets any better
     
  34. Black5

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    Dear neighbor: It has come to my attention that you have made no preparation for an emergency that may leave your family in need of food, water, clothing, or shelter.
    I have put by extra food and water, please have your wife bring a small bag for each of your children consisting of a few days clothes and perhaps some toys. We will store these in case of an emergency.
    I care enough for your children to protect and provide for them in an emergency.
    Do you?

    Signed,
    Your neighbor.
     
  35. PERRO

    PERRO Supporter Supporter

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    I've had several brief conversations with a few neighbors regarding a possible " Catastrophic Earthquake " in the future..

    They'll peak inside my garage & comment on how cluttered it looks.:rolleyes:

    My garage is filled with extra " FOOD SUPPLIES / WATER / PROPANE TANKS / CAMPING GEAR, ETC " . :3:
    [​IMG]

    They would rather have their garages clutter free, too conveniently park their vehicles inside,, None have expressed any desire or plans for storing any extra emergency supplies :30:

    I'm guessing ?? They have decided to let " UNCLE SAM / GOV " worry over how to deal with any Emergencies Plans ...:33:

    I've personally " Eyewitnessed " several significant events living in the " Southern CA " area: Earthquakes ( Sylmar & Northridge ).

    The LA Civil Unrest ( RIOTS ) was an interesting event ..I watched the Looting, along with a large section of the City in flames, buildings burning @ Night. It reminded me of the movie " Gone with the Wind ", the scene of " Atlanta " burning down. :eek:

    P.S.: With the Electrical service down ( Gas Pumps out of Service ) or Ruptured Gas / Fuel Supply lines.. ? Finding any Gasoline was very difficult. :26:

     
    Last edited: Nov 19, 2018
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  36. Black5

    Black5 Supporter Supporter

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    Unfortunately, many of your grasshopper neighbors know of your supplies. And we know what a swarm of grasshoppers can do.
     
  37. PERRO

    PERRO Supporter Supporter

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    Here's my post on another thread ..The article is tooooo long to Re-post :56:

    Los Angeles Times

    The Next California | Part II: Natural Disasters

    Natural disaster is inevitable in California. And it can define a governor's legacy

    By MELANIE MASON

    Graphics by ELLIS SIMANI and PRIYA KRISHNAKUMAR

    SEPT. 30, 2018, 12:05 A.M.

    https://www.latimes.com/projects/la-pol-ca-next-california-natural-disasters/

    https://bushcraftusa.com/forum/thre...well-in-california.236038/page-3#post-4107163
     
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  38. Black5

    Black5 Supporter Supporter

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    I'm glad several of us are discussing this. I've felt a little like I was the oddball here until this thread.:confused:
     
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  39. lopie

    lopie Scout

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    I only keep 10 gallons of gasoline (have that much kerosine and also propane), but I don't have a generator as I am unsure how I could keep it quiet enough to not attract the swarms. And I think i'd only need a generator for the chest freezer, but if power goes out due to a blizzard, I can solve that problem manually.
     
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  40. lopie

    lopie Scout

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    lol, I'm the oddball among all of my friends. I really only got into prepping about six years ago when my second child was born. I thought... oh poop! I need to do something for them.
     
  41. Black5

    Black5 Supporter Supporter

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    I've got to prep for 14 people. Four of them under 10 years old.
    My wife and I have already discussed the possibility that one or two of them won't pull their weight around here should it ever come to that.
    That, my friends, is a harder discussion to have than anything concerning whether or not to help neighbors.
    What do you do when one of your clan decides to be a grasshopper?
     
  42. PERRO

    PERRO Supporter Supporter

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    My wifey's family live in " Puerto Rico " & didn't prep themselves for a " Major Hurricane ". :56:

    Her brother(s), decided to utilize their extra funds $$$ on " Family Vacations ".

    Wifey..felt compelled to send one of her brother(s): AMAZON ; (2) Coleman Double Burner Propane Stove - Extra Propane / Several Battery Powered Lanterns & Flashlite - Extra Batteries ".

    I told her ..He could help himself, & build an " Outdoor Concrete Block Cooking Pit " ..There was Wood debris ( Blown Down Trees / Demolished Framing Wood, etc ) laying everywhere :eek: His home was intact ( No Electricity / Phone Lines / Gas ) & he was above the Street Flooding Zone.

    After that .. I also told her .. :12:

    I never, ever want to hear her ask me " What's That For ??? ".... Your spending toooo much $$$ on Toys :3:
     
    Last edited: Nov 19, 2018
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  43. K7JLJ

    K7JLJ Tracker

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    If they are under your roof, they will get with the program. Clans join when faced with outside pressure, I learned that in bootcamp. :)
     
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  44. PERRO

    PERRO Supporter Supporter

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    Everything is on my " MENU " including grasshoppers, Snout to Tail .. I've been prepping & refining my Cooking Skills for Years :32:
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    https://bushcraftusa.com/forum/threads/whats-on-your-smoker.235821/#post-4104410
     
  45. Black5

    Black5 Supporter Supporter

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    Hope you are right, but I saw guys in basic and OCS break and leave us all hanging. I think there has to be an emotional stability, just like the OP discussed, for that joining to be successful.
    I have some doubt about a couple family members.
     
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  46. K7JLJ

    K7JLJ Tracker

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    @Black5
    Someone has to be in charge of the lifeboat. If one person in the boat is risking the lives of all, the they have to go. Tough love, but they bring it on themselves.

    My house my rules. That doesn't change in SHTF for me.
     
  47. Black5

    Black5 Supporter Supporter

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    Agreed. That's what I meant by that tough conversation we've had prior to an event. We know who we believe the weakest links to be, and have discussed courses of action.
     
  48. OutnBacker

    OutnBacker Guide

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    My wife and I live I a house by ourselves. Our kids are all in their 30's, long gone. We decided a long time ago that the best we can do in a SHTF scenario is to shelter in place and prep and defend as best we can right here. It's a lousy tactical setup, but so are almost all American houses on any given street. So, our philosophy is that if IT happens, and most or all civilized authority and norms are cancelled, we'll probably die pretty fast. If I have my chance, I'll take as many creeps with me as I can before mercifully ending our own lives before being defiled by human beings who have let their inner demons come forth.

    I do believe that humans are inherently evil, the merciful behavior of a few localized disasters notwithstanding. History proves me right, that even educated, highly prosperous and productive societies can and actually have, become monstrously evil en masse. I'm not jus referring to the Nazis, either. They were as bad a bad gets, but they were not alone.

    The Japanese, Chinese, Ottomans, Protestant/Catholic forces in the 1500-1600's, the Communists (Lenin, Stalin, Mao among others like Pol Pot), who murdered more people than any of the others, etc, etc. Lets not forget the various pogroms against the favorite scapegoat, the Jews, where the civilian populations of medieval Germany, Austria, Poland, Latvia, Estonia, Russia, Ukraine, Bulgaria, you name them, was invited to kill as many as they could find. On and on it goes. Don't leave out the Mongols, those murdering bastards were the worst of the worst until the Bolsheviks. Same with the Chechniks of Albania during WW2, who were allied with the Germans in occupied Balkans. German officers were so horrified by what these fiends did to civilians that their general appealed to the Staff in Berlin and said they were totally out of control.

    Okay, that's global but now you can look at local events such as Katrina, the LA riots after that guy got whupped by the cops, Ferguson, where local business owners defended their stores with guns against their own black "brothers". Interesting that Ferguson was ignited by the government - a President and his DOJ lackey - going before an adoring media to incite racially motivated riot in an American city. As a result, we now have BLM, a purely evil Communist group that actively seeks the downfall of an entire society in order to rebuild it in their own image. I believe that if enough people join a group like this, there will be blood.

    There is a reason that warlords, chieftains, and kings evolved from tribalism: People are evil and require boundaries and social mores. Without boundaries, you have The Lord of the Flies.

    Here is personal testimony: My mother was a young woman with a 2 year old son at the end of WW2. For the last 1-1/2 years of the war, as the Russians advanced from the east and the Americans and British bombed from the air, she starved. Every one starved. Her neighbors died and some were eaten. Others committed murder to get the little bit of food the victim had stashed. The normal caution that a killer might have exercised was ignored because the law was almost non-existent and they were caught and lynched by other people. Dogs and cats had long disappeared, but rats were over running everything. This was Vienna. The siege of Leningrad was much worse. She was an Austrian so, on the losing side when the Red Army swept into Austria almost unopposed. We all can read the reports of what happed in Berlin, but the same thing happened virtually everywhere the Russians went. No consequences = No limits on Evil.

    After the war, The Americans and British forced many of the concentration camp guards to undergo mental health analysis. It was assumed that something was wrong with people who did the things they did to innocent human beings. Had to be a sicko thing, right? That was the narrative: The Germans were an evil race. They hired criminals to be the guards, the torturers, the thugs who shoved the victims into the chambers. Wrong. Almost none of the interviewees were found to be outside the parameters of "normal". They just did their job and went off shift at 4. Home for dinner and kiss the kids goodnight.

    A Stanford U study proved the same in the 1970's, using students as blind ginnea pigs. It was hushed up for awhile but anyone can YouTube it now.

    The OP's article is spot on, and I don't get off into the weeds about motives or the Better Angels. As long as there is authority somewhere nearby that holds the respect of the people, there will be those Angels among us. Take away that authority in the Big Meltdown, and the Angels will be the first to be cut to pieces.
     
  49. PERRO

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    Anchorage earthquake was a big one, but it could have been much worse. Why L.A. should take warning.
    By ALEJANDRA REYES-VELARDE
    DEC 01, 2018 | 7:40 AM

    Building cracked. Roads collapsed. People were injured by falling debris.

    But for all the ferocity of the magnitude 7.0 earthquake that struck the Anchorage area on Friday, the temblor did not cause the catastrophic damage or loss of life that have occurred from even smaller quakes both around the world and in California.

    Friday’s Alaska quake actually larger in magnitude than the 1989 Loma Prieta quake and the 1994 Northridge quake, each of which killed more than 50 people and caused billions of dollars in damage.

    What was the difference?

    Experts emphasized they are still studying the Anchorage temblor but said several factors made it less destructive than other major quakes.

    For one thing, the quake was not centered directly under Anchorage. The epicenter was about 8½ miles away, said Jonathan Tytell, a geophysicist with the U.S. Geological Survey. That’s still fairly close, but doesn’t have the same effect as if it were directly under the city.

    The quake was also fairly deep, 25 miles underneath the surface, which also resulted in less shaking at the surface, said Joann Stock, a geology and geophysics professor at Caltech. The magnitude 6.7 Northridge quake hit directly underneath the suburban San Fernando Valley and was much shallower — just 11 miles underground — than the Anchorage quake, so more of the shaking energy made it to the surface, causing more damage.

    “ Earthquakes are just complex,” said Heidi Tremayne, director of the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute. “Each has its own thumbprint.”

    How about the infrastructure?
    Much of the structural damage seen in Anchorage was the result of liquefaction, which is when sediments and water are shaken together and act like quicksand.

    Anchorage is a newer city, with fewer old buildings that are likely to collapse, Tremayne said. Building codes for newer construction are designed to allow buildings to easily withstand the shake intensity ranges seen in the Anchorage earthquake, she said.

    The great 1964 Alaska quake — a magnitude 9.2 monster that battered the whole West Coast with shaking and tsunami — significantly damaged many buildings, so there are few of Anchorage’s oldest structures left, Tremayne said. That’s not the case in many other cities.

    In California, for example, a Los Angeles Times analysis published earlier this year found that there are hundreds of old brick buildings in the Inland Empire that have been marked as dangerous but haven’t been retrofitted despite decades of warning.

    Across California, there are other vulnerable building types, such as apartments with parking on the ground floor, older houses with a handful of steps off the ground, and vulnerable concrete and steel buildings.

    RELATED: Here’s what earthquake magnitudes mean—and why an 8 can be so much scarier than a 6 »

    Unlike Anchorage, many California cities have not been shaken by what scientists consider a major earthquake in the modern era. San Francisco’s last extremely large earthquake was in 1906, with an estimated magnitude pf 7.9. Southern California’s last great one was in 1857, also an estimated magnitude 7.9, which moved the San Andreas fault an astonishing 185 miles between Monterey County and the San Gabriel Mountains near Los Angeles.

    The 1964 Alaska temblor, the second-largest earthquake in the modern record, produced 1,995 times more energy than Friday’s quake. It lasted 4½ minutes and, along with its tsunamis, killed more than 120 people. It was felt all the way to Seattle, where witnesses said they felt the landmark Space Needle swaying.

    A later U.S. Geological Survey study found that an area of 185,000 square miles was disrupted. There were areas that dropped as much as eight feet and others rose 38 feet. Barnacles attached to rocks that used to be two feet underwater were suddenly in the open air. A section of downtown Anchorage sank. Underwater landslides in Alaska’s fjords caused tsunamis within minutes of the shaking. Three huge waves washed into Whittier from Prince William Sound within three minutes. Chenega, to the south, lost 23 people, one-third of its population. To the north In Valdez, 30 died as the harbor and docks collapsed. Eleven people were killed by a tsunami that hit Crescent City, Calif.

    What is the takeaway for California?

    California has a long history of large earthquakes, and experts said the Anchorage destruction should be another warning to prepare.

    A similar-sized earthquake around downtown L.A. would be much more destructive because the buildings are older and the area much more densely populated.

    “In the Los Angeles area there's a much more extensive array of infrastructure throughout the city,” said Tytell. “Up in Alaska, things are a little bit more rural, a little bit more spread out. But make no mistake, there is a city there.”

    Aside from the mighty San Andreas fault, Southern California is criss-crossed with smaller faults that pose major dangers. including the Newport-Inglewood fault, where the 1933 Long Beach quake erupted, and the Hollywood fault, which runs through the heart of Los Angeles.

    Another big concern is the Puente Hills thrust fault, which runs from near Whittier through downtown L.A., USC and Dodger Stadium, before veering west toward Beverly Hills.

    https://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-anchorage-earthquake-explainer-20181130-story.html

    Hmmm,.. I've Gottttts, to re-organize my Emergency Supplies & Camping Equipment :33:

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    Last edited: Dec 1, 2018
    lopie and Harper like this.
  50. Mannlicher

    Mannlicher Guide

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